Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Carter 51.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 77.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
McDavid
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
McDavid
Carter
Last 7: McDavid 1-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
McDavid
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
McDavid
Carter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
3
McDavid
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
49.9% (935)
-3.0%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
61.8% (157)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
46.7% (92)
-2.3%
On power play, Carter has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. McDavid is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (330).
McDavid shoots left. Carter is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
McDavid
Carter
Home
47.9% (478)
52.4% (638)
Away
45.2% (440)
50.0% (546)
By Period
McDavid
Carter
P1
45.9%
49.6%
P2
47.7%
50.9%
P3
46.6%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 06:51 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 18:12 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |