Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.7% vs 49.0%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 49.0% vs Hayes 49.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 52.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 58.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 51.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Carter
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carter
Hayes
Last 5: Carter 3-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Carter
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (242)
48.7% (394)
+0.9%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
61.2% (49)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (50)
34.3% (35)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Carter is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Carter shoots right. Hayes is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Carter
Hayes
Home
48.6% (173)
50.6% (237)
Away
48.9% (141)
47.3% (241)
By Period
Carter
Hayes
P1
52.1%
43.9%
P2
47.8%
47.3%
P3
46.6%
55.9%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |