Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Hayes 47.7% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 36-19 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 93.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 89.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 92.0%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 91.8%
91.8%
8.2%
Carter
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
19
(55 meetings)
36
19
Carter
Hayes
Last 10: Carter 7-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
8
Carter
Hayes
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
6
Carter
Hayes
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
12
5
Carter
Hayes
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
47.5% (6,708)
+5.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
51.7% (702)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
45.3% (697)
+1.0%
On even strength, Carter has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Home / Away
Carter
Hayes
Home
54.7% (5,752)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Carter
Hayes
P1
53.6%
47.5%
P2
52.8%
47.6%
P3
53.1%
47.9%
OT
56.5%
54.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:53 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| May 4, 2021 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |