Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Draisaitl 54.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 77.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 82.2%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 53.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Carter
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Carter
Draisaitl
Last 8: Carter 4-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
4
Carter
Draisaitl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
0
Carter
Draisaitl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
52.4% (974)
+7.3%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
59.5% (373)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
61.0% (123)
-7.8%
On power play, Carter has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Carter
Draisaitl
Home
58.7% (455)
54.5% (778)
Away
60.0% (483)
55.3% (692)
By Period
Carter
Draisaitl
P1
61.3%
54.6%
P2
57.1%
56.1%
P3
59.8%
53.3%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.2%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |