Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 53.3%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 37 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 46-46 in 92 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 67.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.4%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 52.4%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Carter
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
46
(92 meetings)
46
46
Carter
Draisaitl
Last 10: Carter 6-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
11
22
Carter
Draisaitl
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
27
10
Carter
Draisaitl
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
8
14
Carter
Draisaitl
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
52.9% (10,240)
+0.4%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.7% (2,827)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
51.2% (977)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Draisaitl is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,098).
Home / Away
Carter
Draisaitl
Home
54.7% (5,752)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Carter
Draisaitl
P1
53.6%
52.7%
P2
52.8%
53.6%
P3
53.1%
53.4%
OT
56.5%
57.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:33 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 15:13 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |