Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Barzal 46.9% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 78.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 58.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 69.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Carter
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carter
Barzal
Last 8: Carter 3-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
3
Carter
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
46.6% (483)
+11.3%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
40.9% (22)
+20.8%
On power play, Carter has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. Barzal is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Carter
Barzal
Home
58.2% (543)
49.6% (242)
Away
55.9% (594)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Carter
Barzal
P1
57.5%
42.4%
P2
57.1%
49.5%
P3
55.8%
47.7%
OT
68.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:49 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |