Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +23.8% FO% edge overall. Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Barzal 39.3% (+23.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 83.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 82.6%
Neutral zone
Barzal 50.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Carter
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carter
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Carter
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
35.0% (283)
+24.7%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
55.6% (9)
+12.5%
On even strength, Carter has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. Barzal is 26.8% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Home / Away
Carter
Barzal
Home
58.7% (455)
37.0% (138)
Away
60.0% (483)
34.4% (154)
By Period
Carter
Barzal
P1
61.3%
29.5%
P2
57.1%
44.5%
P3
59.8%
31.8%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
35.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 01:03 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |