Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Barzal 42.2% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.2%
Defensive zone
Barzal 73.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 77.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Carter
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Carter
Barzal
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
5
Carter
Barzal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
7
Carter
Barzal
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
41.9% (3,565)
+11.4%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
43.4% (205)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
42.3% (26)
+4.0%
On power play, Carter has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Home / Away
Carter
Barzal
Home
54.7% (5,752)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Carter
Barzal
P1
53.6%
40.7%
P2
52.8%
44.4%
P3
53.1%
41.0%
OT
56.5%
27.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 01:03 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:49 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 13:15 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |