Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.4% vs 59.4%). Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs McCarron 54.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 63.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 74.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 66.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Carter
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Carter
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
62.8% (86)
-3.1%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
50.0% (2)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
44.4% (18)
+8.8%
On power play, Carter has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Carter is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Carter shoots right. McCarron is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
Carter
McCarron
Home
58.7% (455)
59.5% (42)
Away
60.0% (483)
59.4% (64)
By Period
Carter
McCarron
P1
61.3%
71.0%
P2
57.1%
48.7%
P3
59.8%
61.1%
Final 5 min
60.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |