Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.1% vs Dowd 49.8% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 58.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 63.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Carter
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carter
Dowd
Last 7: Carter 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Carter
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Carter
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Carter
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (552)
50.7% (379)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
64.3% (14)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (100)
46.5% (157)
-5.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carter is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Carter shoots right. Dowd is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Home / Away
Carter
Dowd
Home
51.2% (324)
53.7% (244)
Away
51.2% (422)
46.6% (307)
By Period
Carter
Dowd
P1
49.8%
53.6%
P2
52.8%
44.1%
P3
51.2%
51.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 09:22 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |