Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 87.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Carter
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Carter
Dowd
Last 10: Carter 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
6
2
Carter
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
6
Carter
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Carter
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
52.4% (6,009)
+0.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
56.1% (164)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
44.1% (1,635)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Carter
Dowd
Home
54.7% (5,752)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Carter
Dowd
P1
53.6%
51.7%
P2
52.8%
50.4%
P3
53.1%
50.3%
OT
56.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:53 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 1, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |