Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 49.0% vs Dowd 55.5% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 78.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.2%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Carter
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Carter
Dowd
Last 8: Carter 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
0
Carter
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Carter
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Carter
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (242)
58.2% (617)
-8.6%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
71.4% (7)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (50)
47.2% (144)
-7.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carter is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Carter shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Home / Away
Carter
Dowd
Home
48.6% (173)
58.4% (399)
Away
48.9% (141)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Carter
Dowd
P1
52.1%
59.0%
P2
47.8%
56.1%
P3
46.6%
54.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |