Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Sturm 56.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 62.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Carter
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Carter
Sturm
Last 10: Carter 7-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
10
3
Carter
Sturm
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Carter
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
57.1% (2,681)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
61.3% (62)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
51.7% (482)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Sturm is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,066).
Home / Away
Carter
Sturm
Home
54.7% (5,752)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Carter
Sturm
P1
53.6%
56.4%
P2
52.8%
55.1%
P3
53.1%
57.6%
OT
56.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |