Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Sturm 52.5% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 92.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 70.0%
Neutral zone
Carter 79.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Carter
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
4
(17 meetings)
13
4
Carter
Sturm
Last 10: Carter 7-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
10
2
Carter
Sturm
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
54.0% (480)
+3.9%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
28.6% (7)
+33.1%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
50.0% (102)
-4.6%
On power play, Carter has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Carter
Sturm
Home
58.2% (543)
54.0% (287)
Away
55.9% (594)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Carter
Sturm
P1
57.5%
53.5%
P2
57.1%
51.0%
P3
55.8%
55.1%
OT
68.2%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |