Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Sturm 56.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 63.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 80.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Carter
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Carter
Sturm
Last 10: Carter 7-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
10
3
Carter
Sturm
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Carter
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
61.3% (62)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
51.0% (498)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Carter
Sturm
Home
54.7% (5,752)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Carter
Sturm
P1
53.6%
56.5%
P2
52.8%
54.9%
P3
53.1%
57.4%
OT
56.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |