Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Sturm 55.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 64.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Carter
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carter
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Carter
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Carter
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
56.1% (716)
+3.6%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
67.7% (31)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
51.1% (133)
+2.1%
On even strength, Carter has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Carter
Sturm
Home
58.7% (455)
55.6% (412)
Away
60.0% (483)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Carter
Sturm
P1
61.3%
59.6%
P2
57.1%
52.0%
P3
59.8%
55.5%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |