Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 71.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 51.4%
Neutral zone
Carter 51.6%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Carter
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carter
Kuraly
Last 7: Carter 3-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
Carter
Kuraly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
49.2% (901)
+10.5%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
68.2% (22)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
49.8% (219)
+3.4%
On even strength, Carter has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
Carter
Kuraly
Home
58.7% (455)
51.7% (603)
Away
60.0% (483)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Carter
Kuraly
P1
61.3%
50.9%
P2
57.1%
49.5%
P3
59.8%
49.1%
OT
57.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |