Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 73.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 84.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 61.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Carter
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
18
(30 meetings)
12
18
Carter
Kuraly
Last 10: Carter 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
6
2
Carter
Kuraly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
12
Carter
Kuraly
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
4
Carter
Kuraly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
51.5% (5,141)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
56.0% (100)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
44.2% (1,086)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Home / Away
Carter
Kuraly
Home
54.7% (5,752)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Carter
Kuraly
P1
53.6%
51.1%
P2
52.8%
49.9%
P3
53.1%
50.0%
OT
56.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 13, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 13:32 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 18:10 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |