Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 53.6%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Seguin 53.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 53.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 50.2%
Neutral zone
Seguin 50.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Carter
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
15
(33 meetings)
18
15
Carter
Seguin
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Carter
Seguin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
5
Carter
Seguin
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
3
7
Carter
Seguin
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
53.7% (8,071)
-0.4%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.9% (810)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
49.3% (762)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Carter
Seguin
Home
54.7% (5,752)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Carter
Seguin
P1
53.6%
52.8%
P2
52.8%
53.3%
P3
53.1%
54.7%
OT
56.5%
54.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 28, 2019 | OT | 01:16 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 15:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |