Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Gourde 49.5% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 83.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 88.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 78.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Carter
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Carter
Gourde
Last 9: Carter 6-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
3
2
Carter
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
49.1% (731)
+8.8%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
54.3% (81)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
48.2% (85)
-2.8%
On even strength, Carter has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Gourde is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Carter
Gourde
Home
58.2% (543)
50.9% (479)
Away
55.9% (594)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Carter
Gourde
P1
57.5%
51.2%
P2
57.1%
49.8%
P3
55.8%
47.5%
OT
68.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |