Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Gourde 48.2% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 81.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 67.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 70.9%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Carter
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Carter
Gourde
Last 10: Carter 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Carter
Gourde
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
1
Carter
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
48.4% (4,954)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
57.4% (376)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
39.9% (554)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Carter
Gourde
Home
54.7% (5,752)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Carter
Gourde
P1
53.6%
49.9%
P2
52.8%
47.4%
P3
53.1%
47.5%
OT
56.5%
37.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |