Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Skinner wins 25.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 48.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 95.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.0%
Neutral zone
Skinner 59.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Skinner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Skinner
Dowd
Last 7: Skinner 1-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
1
0
Skinner
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
6
Skinner
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (222)
55.2% (625)
-8.4%
Power Play
48.7% (78)
57.1% (7)
-8.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Skinner is 25.7% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Skinner shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Skinner
Dowd
Home
53.8% (169)
53.7% (445)
Away
38.9% (131)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Skinner
Dowd
P1
48.1%
48.8%
P2
47.1%
49.3%
P3
46.9%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
47.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |