Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 13 meetings). Skinner wins 36.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 44.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Skinner 96.8%
Defensive zone
Skinner 85.4%
Neutral zone
Skinner 84.8%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 86.7%
86.7%
13.3%
Skinner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Skinner
Dowd
Last 10: Skinner 1-9 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
2
0
Skinner
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
13
Skinner
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Skinner
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (1,317)
52.4% (6,009)
-10.1%
Power Play
52.0% (404)
56.1% (164)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
44.1% (1,635)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Skinner is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Skinner shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Skinner
Dowd
Home
48.2% (949)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
39.9% (791)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Skinner
Dowd
P1
41.6%
51.7%
P2
46.0%
50.4%
P3
46.4%
50.3%
OT
23.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
44.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 14:04 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 1 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2018 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |