Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Skinner wins 27.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 45.5% vs Dowd 48.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.8%
Neutral zone
Skinner 63.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Skinner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Skinner
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Skinner
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Skinner
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (105)
49.2% (778)
-8.2%
Power Play
50.0% (18)
58.3% (12)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.0% (234)
-44.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Skinner is 27.9% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Skinner shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Skinner
Dowd
Home
43.8% (64)
46.3% (492)
Away
40.0% (60)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Skinner
Dowd
P1
38.6%
49.1%
P2
40.5%
48.2%
P3
47.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
33.3%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
41.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |