Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Skinner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Skinner wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 51.6% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 88.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 91.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Skinner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Skinner
O'Reilly
Last 6: Skinner 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
3
0
Skinner
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Skinner
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (200)
57.1% (1,367)
-9.6%
Power Play
62.0% (100)
59.4% (286)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
52.5% (257)
-52.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +52.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Skinner is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Skinner shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Skinner
O'Reilly
Home
58.9% (158)
59.2% (936)
Away
44.8% (143)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Skinner
O'Reilly
P1
49.0%
57.3%
P2
47.4%
57.5%
P3
59.6%
55.0%
OT
50.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |