Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Skinner wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 43.5% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 82.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.2%
Neutral zone
Skinner 58.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Skinner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Skinner
O'Reilly
Last 9: Skinner 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
4
0
Skinner
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Skinner
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.5% (152)
56.6% (1,064)
-19.1%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
60.4% (260)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
54.0% (261)
-54.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +54.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Skinner is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Skinner shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Skinner
O'Reilly
Home
41.5% (130)
54.9% (801)
Away
39.4% (94)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Skinner
O'Reilly
P1
32.9%
58.0%
P2
47.1%
56.7%
P3
40.6%
55.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
40.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 25, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |