Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Boqvist wins 32.3% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boqvist 39.6% vs Barzal 46.9% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Boqvist 55.0%
Defensive zone
Boqvist 61.3%
Neutral zone
Boqvist 58.0%
Result
Jesper Boqvist favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Boqvist
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Boqvist
Barzal
Last 6: Boqvist 2-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Boqvist
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
3
Boqvist
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boqvist
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (432)
46.6% (483)
-10.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
40.9% (22)
+9.1%
On even strength, Barzal has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Boqvist is 32.3% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Boqvist shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Boqvist
Barzal
Home
36.3% (182)
49.6% (242)
Away
38.1% (268)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Boqvist
Barzal
P1
35.2%
42.4%
P2
40.4%
49.5%
P3
36.0%
47.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
36.2%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boqvist
32.0%▼
39.0%
37.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:08 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 12:17 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 04:31 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |