Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Paul 53.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 65.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.7%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 53.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
53.2% (327)
-5.9%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
61.4% (57)
+38.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.0% (32)
-16.7%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
46.5% (129)
54.6% (183)
Away
50.0% (84)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
51.3%
56.3%
P2
46.1%
54.8%
P3
45.9%
52.4%
Final 5 min
48.2%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |