Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.7% vs Paul 52.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 63.9%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 52.0%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 54.9%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (195)
53.1% (277)
-5.4%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
58.7% (46)
+41.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
51.7% (29)
-18.4%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +41.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
46.8% (126)
52.9% (155)
Away
50.0% (74)
54.3% (197)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
50.0%
55.6%
P2
47.9%
56.7%
P3
45.6%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.3%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |