Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 53.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 60.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 55.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Last 7: Kotkaniemi 4-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (586)
53.1% (710)
-1.4%
Power Play
48.1% (52)
57.3% (199)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
58.0% (69)
+4.5%
On power play, Paul has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
49.5% (313)
56.0% (466)
Away
53.5% (333)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
54.5%
57.2%
P2
51.1%
54.9%
P3
49.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 18:12 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |