Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.3% vs Paul 53.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 66.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 65.9%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 50.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Last 6: Kotkaniemi 3-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kotkaniemi
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Kotkaniemi
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (637)
53.8% (753)
-2.0%
Power Play
48.2% (56)
58.9% (90)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
47.4% (78)
-4.5%
On power play, Paul has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (472).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
53.1% (339)
54.2% (450)
Away
49.9% (361)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
48.3%
58.2%
P2
55.0%
50.6%
P3
50.4%
52.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 02:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |