Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.5% vs Paul 50.0% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 55.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 62.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Kotkaniemi
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (670)
48.8% (666)
+4.0%
Power Play
37.5% (32)
53.8% (65)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
60.0% (55)
-45.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +45.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Paul
Home
52.5% (366)
49.7% (348)
Away
51.0% (343)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Paul
P1
53.8%
51.0%
P2
49.2%
47.4%
P3
52.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:18 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |