Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Steven Stamkos
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kotkaniemi wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.5% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.6%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 73.9%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 54.9%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
Last 6: Kotkaniemi 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
2
0
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
2
1
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (670)
49.3% (670)
+3.5%
Power Play
37.5% (32)
53.7% (121)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
33.3% (3)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
Home
52.5% (366)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.0% (343)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Stamkos
P1
53.8%
48.6%
P2
49.2%
54.5%
P3
52.6%
45.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |