Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Pavelski 53.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 52.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 60.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Nelson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Nelson
Pavelski
Last 6: Nelson 6-0 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
54.4% (474)
-3.7%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
51.9% (104)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
52.7% (74)
-4.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pavelski
Home
53.6% (603)
54.3% (313)
Away
49.9% (585)
53.4% (339)
By Period
Nelson
Pavelski
P1
55.4%
51.0%
P2
47.2%
51.9%
P3
52.6%
58.1%
OT
51.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |