Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 36.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 42.9% vs Pavelski 54.5% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.6%
Defensive zone
Malkin 86.1%
Neutral zone
Malkin 85.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Malkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Malkin
Pavelski
Last 6: Malkin 1-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Malkin
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Malkin
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Malkin
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (722)
53.6% (657)
-11.1%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
60.2% (221)
-24.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
51.7% (60)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Malkin is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Malkin shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
Malkin
Pavelski
Home
43.3% (406)
57.4% (470)
Away
40.4% (349)
52.6% (468)
By Period
Malkin
Pavelski
P1
39.3%
53.4%
P2
43.1%
55.6%
P3
43.8%
55.5%
OT
37.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
38.2%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
42.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 07:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |