Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 45.3% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 82.2%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 84.4%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 83.9%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Last 6: Kuznetsov 1-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
1
0
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (613)
55.0% (785)
-11.1%
Power Play
50.7% (67)
62.7% (201)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
52.2% (161)
+47.8%
On penalty kill, Kuznetsov has a +47.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kuznetsov is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (266).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Home
43.3% (356)
58.1% (580)
Away
46.2% (325)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
P1
45.8%
53.4%
P2
47.3%
58.6%
P3
41.6%
56.4%
OT
14.3%
36.8%
Final 5 min
44.4%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2015 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2015 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |