Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Ek 46.4% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ek 82.4%
Defensive zone
Ek 74.6%
Neutral zone
Ek 73.6%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 79.1%
20.9%
79.1%
Pavelski
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Ek
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
0
3
Pavelski
Ek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Ek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
0
1
Pavelski
Ek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
47.1% (482)
+6.9%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
50.0% (14)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
29.5% (44)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Ek is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (215).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Ek
Home
55.2% (458)
48.4% (254)
Away
51.4% (531)
43.4% (286)
By Period
Pavelski
Ek
P1
54.0%
44.8%
P2
54.5%
46.9%
P3
50.5%
45.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 1 | 03:52 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |