Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Ek 47.7% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 59.6%
Defensive zone
Ek 70.6%
Neutral zone
Ek 65.1%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Pavelski
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Pavelski
Ek
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
1
4
Pavelski
Ek
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
0
2
Pavelski
Ek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Ek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
48.0% (920)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
52.0% (302)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
40.3% (243)
+4.1%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Ek is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (523).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Ek
Home
55.0% (391)
49.1% (740)
Away
49.7% (360)
46.1% (725)
By Period
Pavelski
Ek
P1
50.8%
47.6%
P2
55.0%
48.9%
P3
52.0%
45.4%
OT
25.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |