Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Draisaitl 49.1% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 64.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 70.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 77.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Last 9: Pavelski 7-2 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
2
Pavelski
Draisaitl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
49.2% (762)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
51.8% (164)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
34.8% (46)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Draisaitl is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Home
53.8% (431)
54.3% (475)
Away
51.1% (425)
43.9% (497)
By Period
Pavelski
Draisaitl
P1
48.4%
47.5%
P2
52.0%
49.7%
P3
55.6%
50.3%
OT
80.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
51.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 01:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |