Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 53.4%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Draisaitl 53.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.4%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 55.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.6%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Last 9: Pavelski 4-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Draisaitl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Pavelski
Draisaitl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
2
Pavelski
Draisaitl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
52.6% (1,124)
-0.1%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
58.4% (344)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
49.2% (193)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Home
55.0% (391)
55.5% (816)
Away
49.7% (360)
51.4% (845)
By Period
Pavelski
Draisaitl
P1
50.8%
51.1%
P2
55.0%
51.6%
P3
52.0%
56.9%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |