Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.3%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 41 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 57-41 in 98 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 58.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 57.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
57
-
41
(98 meetings)
57
41
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
20
15
Pavelski
Draisaitl
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
24
17
Pavelski
Draisaitl
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
9
Pavelski
Draisaitl
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.9% (10,240)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.7% (2,827)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
51.2% (977)
-0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Draisaitl is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,098).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Draisaitl
Home
56.4% (5,998)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Pavelski
Draisaitl
P1
53.5%
52.7%
P2
55.2%
53.6%
P3
53.9%
53.4%
OT
52.3%
57.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |