Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couture shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Couture 48.8% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 84.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Pavelski
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Pavelski
Couture
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Couture
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Couture
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
4
Pavelski
Couture
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
48.7% (986)
+3.8%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
58.5% (94)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
44.1% (195)
+0.3%
On power play, Couture has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Couture is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Couture
Home
55.0% (391)
47.2% (625)
Away
49.7% (360)
50.2% (650)
By Period
Pavelski
Couture
P1
50.8%
46.8%
P2
55.0%
49.8%
P3
52.0%
49.8%
OT
25.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
56.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 13:43 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 08:26 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Logan Couture |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |