Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couture shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Couture 48.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 20-12 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.7%
88.7%
11.3%
Pavelski
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
12
(32 meetings)
20
12
Pavelski
Couture
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
2
Pavelski
Couture
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couture
2
3
Pavelski
Couture
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
7
Pavelski
Couture
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.8% (8,919)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.6% (624)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
39.8% (992)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Couture is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,626).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Couture
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.4% (5,418)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.1% (5,135)
By Period
Pavelski
Couture
P1
53.5%
47.9%
P2
55.2%
47.9%
P3
53.9%
49.2%
OT
52.3%
48.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Logan Couture |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 16:24 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 13:43 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |