Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Foligno 47.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 90.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Pavelski
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Pavelski
Foligno
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Foligno
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
47.6% (553)
+6.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.3% (64)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
34.2% (76)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Foligno is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Foligno
Home
56.4% (5,998)
46.0% (365)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.9% (328)
By Period
Pavelski
Foligno
P1
53.5%
48.7%
P2
55.2%
49.8%
P3
53.9%
42.7%
OT
52.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 07:36 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |