Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Backlund 49.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 68.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 69.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 69.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Pavelski
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Pavelski
Backlund
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
3
Pavelski
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
5
Pavelski
Backlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
49.2% (884)
+4.8%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
44.3% (61)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
57.0% (86)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Backlund is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (377).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Backlund
Home
55.2% (458)
49.3% (531)
Away
51.4% (531)
49.8% (500)
By Period
Pavelski
Backlund
P1
54.0%
47.1%
P2
54.5%
53.7%
P3
50.5%
47.8%
OT
60.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 06:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 3 | 14:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |