Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Backlund 50.5% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 74.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 59.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Pavelski
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Pavelski
Backlund
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
6
Pavelski
Backlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.5% (983)
+1.0%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
49.4% (87)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
45.3% (159)
-0.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Backlund
Home
55.0% (391)
51.6% (653)
Away
49.7% (360)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Pavelski
Backlund
P1
50.8%
50.0%
P2
55.0%
49.8%
P3
52.0%
51.7%
OT
25.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 08:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 12:55 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |