Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs MacKinnon 42.6% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 50.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Pavelski
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
40.7% (953)
+12.5%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
51.4% (148)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
36.4% (55)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 38.4% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
56.1% (421)
42.1% (617)
Away
53.9% (490)
41.7% (540)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
43.4%
P2
55.8%
40.9%
P3
52.5%
40.8%
OT
44.4%
55.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |