Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 90.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Pavelski
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
44.7% (1,053)
+7.6%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
36.8% (95)
+20.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
65.0% (20)
-2.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
54.2% (360)
49.4% (553)
Away
52.6% (329)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
54.5%
45.3%
P2
56.7%
42.7%
P3
50.8%
45.1%
OT
30.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |