Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Pavelski
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
45.8% (755)
+6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
48.3% (60)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
27.6% (29)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
55.0% (391)
49.5% (396)
Away
49.7% (360)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
50.8%
50.2%
P2
55.0%
43.8%
P3
52.0%
41.4%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |