Joe Pavelski vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 85.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 88.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 91.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
17
(44 meetings)
27
17
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
5
Pavelski
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
5
Pavelski
MacKinnon
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
12
7
Pavelski
MacKinnon
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
46.1% (11,218)
+7.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
53.3% (1,412)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.8% (502)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
53.5%
47.4%
P2
55.2%
46.6%
P3
53.9%
46.1%
OT
52.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |