Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Last 7: Pavelski 3-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
45.5% (1,190)
+6.0%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.4% (94)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
40.0% (30)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
53.1% (339)
47.8% (670)
Away
49.2% (356)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
53.8%
45.3%
P2
47.8%
48.5%
P3
50.2%
45.0%
OT
71.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |